The Black Swan has been widely influential in the fields of finance, economics, and risk management, and has inspired the development of a new field called "black swan theory." The book suggests that we need to be more aware of the limitations of our knowledge and more humble in the face of the unpredictability of the world. This, in turn, leads us to make poor decisions and to be overly confident in our predictions and plans. Examples of black swans include major world events like the 9/11 attacks, the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic.Īccording to Taleb, our inability to predict black swan events leads us to underestimate their importance and overestimate our own understanding of the world. These events, which Taleb calls "black swans," are characterized by their rarity, their high impact, and the fact that they are often only retrospectively predictable. Written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a philosopher, statistician, and former trader, the book argues that we are fundamentally unable to predict or even fully understand the rare and unpredictable events that shape our lives and the world around us. Published: 2007 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book that challenges the way we think about the world and our place in it.
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